Tuesday, February 1, 2011

Year of the Rabbit

The Associated Press wrote that among key predictions for the new year beginning Feb. 3: terrorist threats, continuing tensions between China and the United States, natural disasters around the world and wobbly global markets. Events such as these could have been predicted using trend forecasting. It is not difficult. It is nothing new. The world is dying; we all know it. Natural disasters will happen and global markets will be affected by natural disasters. Tensions between countries will happen and wars cost money and that also significantly impacts the global markets. Markets rise and fall as they always do, and only the very few know where it will go, with sufficient information.

Most importantly, to know, is to locate the exact location of the natural disasters. Markets will always be wobbly, interdependency from the depency on common currencies, dependence on external labour productivity on the basis of widening the profit margin and dependence on external commodities. Price and cost differentials have provided for cross border trading and with it, economic interdependencies.

Forecasting is easy if the fortune teller keeps updated on current events and previous events; like question spotting for the A level examinations. Almost anyone can say it. Yes, there will be natural disasters. There will never be a year without one. There will never be a year without a country going against another. There will never be a year without wobbly global markets. There will never be a year without a fortune teller telling that calamities will befall. So there.